Presidential Candidates

It’s a little sad that the 2008 Presidential campaign is already kicking into gear – with the first primaries still a year away.

But, NPR’s Weekend Edition Saturday had a surprisingly entertaining interview with former Senators Bob Kerrey (D-NE) and Alan Simpson (R-WY) about the race. In this interview, they voice opinions that perhaps the most likely candidates to win their parties’ nominations are:

• Barack Obama (Sen, D-IL)
• Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen, D-NY)
• John Edwards (former Sen, D-NC)
• John McCain (Sen, R-AZ)
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor, R-New York City)
• Mitt Romney (former Governor, R-MA)

This seems like a plausible list to me, although of course a lot can change in a year.

The interesting thing here is how many candidates are sitting or former Senators, especially among the Democrats. But in my lifetime, being a sitting Senator has been the kiss of death for a Presidential candidate. Look how far back we have to go to find a sitting Senator who was elected to the Presidency:

• George W. Bush (2000): Sitting Governor of Texas
• Bill Clinton (1992): Sitting Governor of Arkansas
• George H. W. Bush (1988): Sitting Vice President
• Ronald Reagan (1980): Former Governor of California
• Jimmy Carter (1976): Former Governor of Georgia
• Richard Nixon (1968): Former Representative, Senator and Vice President; hadn’t held office for 8 years (!)
• Lyndon Johnson (1964): Reelected as sitting President, having been elected as Kennedy’s Vice President
• John F. Kennedy (1960): Sitting Senator

In that span, many Senators and former Senators have won their party’s nomination and then gone down to defeat:

• Bush the Junior defeated Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004)
• Clinton defeated Bob Dole (1996)
• Nixon defeated George McGovern (1972)
• Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater (1964)

So does this mean we can look forward to a President Giuliani or President Romney? Well…