It’s a little sad that the 2008 Presidential campaign is already kicking into gear – with the first primaries still a year away.
But, NPR’s Weekend Edition Saturday had a surprisingly entertaining interview with former Senators Bob Kerrey (D-NE) and Alan Simpson (R-WY) about the race. In this interview, they voice opinions that perhaps the most likely candidates to win their parties’ nominations are:
- Barack Obama (Sen, D-IL)
- Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen, D-NY)
- John Edwards (former Sen, D-NC)
- John McCain (Sen, R-AZ)
- Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor, R-New York City)
- Mitt Romney (former Governor, R-MA)
This seems like a plausible list to me, although of course a lot can change in a year.
The interesting thing here is how many candidates are sitting or former Senators, especially among the Democrats. But in my lifetime, being a sitting Senator has been the kiss of death for a Presidential candidate. Look how far back we have to go to find a sitting Senator who was elected to the Presidency:
- George W. Bush (2000): Sitting Governor of Texas
- Bill Clinton (1992): Sitting Governor of Arkansas
- George H. W. Bush (1988): Sitting Vice President
- Ronald Reagan (1980): Former Governor of California
- Jimmy Carter (1976): Former Governor of Georgia
- Richard Nixon (1968): Former Representative, Senator and Vice President; hadn’t held office for 8 years (!)
- Lyndon Johnson (1964): Reelected as sitting President, having been elected as Kennedy’s Vice President
- John F. Kennedy (1960): Sitting Senator
In that span, many Senators and former Senators have won their party’s nomination and then gone down to defeat:
- Bush the Junior defeated Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004)
- Clinton defeated Bob Dole (1996)
- Nixon defeated George McGovern (1972)
- Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater (1964)
So does this mean we can look forward to a President Giuliani or President Romney? Well…